月度前瞻 | 经济“量价”回升？

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Demand recovery appears to be stronger, supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions, which positively impacted exports, rising to 5.9% in November after a decline in October [1][13] - The increase in working days in November contributed to the export rebound, as the "production rush" effect from previous months diminished [1][13] Group 3 - Domestic demand highlights include improvements in investment and service consumption, with the easing of debt repayment pressures potentially benefiting investment [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to remain high due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite some pressure from the decline in "trade-in" programs [2][22] Group 4 - Challenges remain, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where companies are accelerating debt repayments, which may further constrain investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with expectations of further declines in real estate investment and sales in November [3][42] Group 5 - Inflation indicators showed improvement, with the CPI expected to rise to 0.7% in November, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is projected to slightly decline to -2.2% in November, reflecting the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policies on price recovery in the downstream sectors [4][69] Group 6 - Overall, November's economic indicators suggest improvements in both quantity and price, with actual GDP growth estimated at 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth [4][78] - The demand-side improvements are more pronounced, with short-term factors positively impacting exports and easing investment pressures from debt repayment [4][78]