数据点评 | 如何理解CPI与PPI再度分化？（申万宏观 · 赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][8][71] - Food prices rose, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant increases of 21.8% and 2.7% respectively, while pork prices remained low at -15% year-on-year [2][8][71] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][8][72] PPI Analysis - The PPI in November recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7][45] - Factors influencing PPI include rising coal prices due to anti-involution policies, which increased by 9.5% month-on-month, contributing 0.3% to the PPI [3][35][73] - However, the decline in steel and oil prices negatively impacted the PPI, leading to an overall weak performance in downstream prices [3][35][73] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% in November, with weak demand for travel and further declines in rental prices [3][25][62] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, primarily due to reduced travel demand post-holiday, affecting hotel and flight prices [3][25][62] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from reduced government subsidies and rising youth unemployment may limit the extent of this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The November CPI rebound was significantly driven by food items, with food CPI rising by 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year [5][50][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and communication tools experienced declines, with respective decreases of -0.1% and -1.9% [5][55][74] - Overall service CPI showed a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62][74]