2025年第49周：酒行业周度市场观察

Industry Environment - The domestic liquor industry is experiencing a "winter," with declining production and revenue, and weak consumer demand leading to price drops. The production of white liquor has decreased from 13.58 million tons in 2016 to 6.29 million tons, while beer production has fallen from 50.8 million tons in 2013 to 33.12 million tons. Major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are seeing significant slowdowns in performance [2][3] - Companies are shifting towards low-alcohol and light bottle liquor to attract younger consumers, while beer manufacturers are introducing non-alcoholic and low-sugar beverages. Despite the overall industry downturn, there remains long-term growth potential, with innovation and niche markets being key to breaking through [3] White Liquor Price Surge - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, white liquor was used as a low-price draw on e-commerce platforms, but a collective price increase followed shortly after, with brands like Moutai and Yanghe raising prices. This price surge began with mid-range products and expanded to all categories, as companies implemented quota controls and measures against low pricing to address high inventory and price inversion issues. Short-term demand during New Year and Spring Festival may drive prices higher, but long-term risks persist due to high inventory levels of mid-range brands and economic uncertainties [4] Marketing Strategies for New Year and Spring Festival - The New Year and Spring Festival are peak sales periods for white liquor, prompting brands to prepare marketing strategies in advance. Zodiac-themed liquor products were launched early to capture the gift market. Companies are employing detailed strategies, emphasizing digitalization and regional penetration, while enhancing consumer engagement through immersive experiences and value promotions. This year's marketing is characterized by preemptive, refined, and standardized approaches aimed at rebuilding channel confidence and enhancing brand resilience [5] Reflections on Double Eleven - The liquor industry observed three major trends during this year's Double Eleven: collaboration between platforms and brands to regulate channels and combat low-price tactics, a clear polarization in consumer preferences between high-end gift liquor and affordable self-consumption options, and accelerated online-offline integration through immersive experiences and instant delivery [6] Industry Transformation from 2021 to 2025 - The period from 2021 to 2025 is critical for the transformation and development of the Chinese liquor industry, marked by capital mergers, regulatory upgrades, product innovations, and market adjustments. The industry is expected to face inventory reduction and strategic shifts, with a notable rise in domestic whiskey. By 2025, the industry is anticipated to embrace low-alcohol and health-oriented trends, with ESG becoming a consensus [7] Light Bottle Liquor Market Dynamics - The light bottle liquor market is becoming a popular segment within the white liquor industry, with intense competition and a reshaping of market dynamics. The 50 yuan price range is a focal point for companies, with products like Guojiao 1573 performing well. The market is projected to exceed 150 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 17%, although profit margins are generally lower than the industry average. The shift from "low price for volume" to "quality competition" is evident, necessitating an upgrade in marketing strategies [8] Fourth Quarter Performance Outlook - The third quarter of this year has been challenging for the white liquor industry, making the fourth quarter crucial for annual performance. The industry is transitioning from scale expansion to value reconstruction, focusing on deepening consumer engagement and cultural empowerment. Major brands are enhancing consumer experiences through events, while regional companies are concentrating on localized strategies [9] Emerging Trends in the Loose Liquor Market - Loose liquor, once a staple for older generations, is now gaining popularity among younger consumers. New brands are rapidly expanding, with the market expected to surpass 80 billion yuan in 2024. The market is divided into traditional community stores and new "loose liquor shops" catering to younger consumers' social needs. Despite significant market potential, competition is fierce, and profitability remains challenging [11] Banquet Market as a Potential Lifeline - The Chinese white liquor industry is facing severe challenges, with a declining consumer base and reduced sales in banquet settings. Younger consumers show low acceptance of white liquor, while older consumers are drinking less for health reasons. The industry is exploring low-alcohol and light bottle liquor to attract younger buyers and is focusing on banquet scenarios for growth. However, competition in the banquet market is intense, and brand appeal and cost-effectiveness will be critical [12] Brand Highlights - Jingyu Qingjiu has been recognized for its role in the revival of Chinese sake, winning the "Category Champion" award at a national conference. The brand emphasizes cultural revival and technological innovation, with an annual production capacity of 15,000 tons and a strong online sales presence [13][14] - Five Star Liquor is navigating the transformation in the sauce liquor sector by focusing on quality and talent development, achieving significant recognition in international competitions and maintaining a robust growth strategy [15] - Diaoyutai Liquor is leveraging sports marketing to enhance brand experience and connect with high-net-worth individuals, showcasing a commitment to quality and craftsmanship [16] - Fenjiu is demonstrating resilience in the face of market adjustments, with a focus on optimizing product structure and expanding its national strategy, achieving a revenue of 32.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [17][18]