美联储如期降息：申万期货早间评论-20251211

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][6][21]. Economic Indicators - China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the core CPI increased by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [1][8]. - The PPI in November decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the producer sector [12]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, U.S. stock indices rose, with the real estate sector leading gains and the banking sector lagging [3][11]. - The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.84%, reflecting a slight uptick in bond market activity [12]. Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in November grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly accelerating compared to October, showcasing resilience in foreign trade [12]. - The central government's economic policy emphasizes a stable and efficient approach for the upcoming year, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [12]. Commodity Insights - Copper prices fell in the overnight market, with supply constraints continuing to impact the market dynamics [19]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain optimistic in the medium to long term due to limited supply and low inventory levels, despite current seasonal demand weaknesses [21]. Industry Developments - The retail industry is set to transition towards quality-driven and service-oriented growth, as highlighted in the recent national retail conference [9]. - The energy sector anticipates a potential increase in U.S. oil production, with projections for 2025 indicating a daily average of 13.61 million barrels [13].