华尔街解读美联储决议：比预期更鸽派

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was less hawkish than market expectations, with no additional dissenters or a higher dot plot, indicating a more dovish stance than anticipated [1][6][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and a $40 billion Treasury purchase plan, marking the first time such measures were explicitly included in a policy statement since the liquidity crunch during the COVID-19 pandemic [2][3] - The dot plot revealed that while six members supported maintaining rates next year, only two dissenters were present, which was below market expectations for a hawkish lineup [4][5] Group 2: Economic Projections - Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong noted a dovish overall tone, with the committee raising growth forecasts while lowering inflation expectations, maintaining the dot plot unchanged [8] - Wong predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 100 basis points next year, contrary to the 25 basis points indicated in the dot plot, citing weak wage growth and a lack of inflation rebound in the first half of 2026 as reasons [9] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs' David Mericle acknowledged the presence of subtle hawkish elements in the decision but stated it aligned with expectations, highlighting the unusual nature of including asset purchases in the statement [10] - Concerns were raised regarding the management of reserves, with Bloomberg's interest rate strategist Ira Jersey questioning the appropriateness of permanent operations for maintaining reserve levels [12] Group 4: Policy Uncertainty and Leadership Changes - Analysts expressed concerns about the upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve, which could introduce significant policy uncertainties, especially if the new chair is perceived to have a political agenda [14] - Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah emphasized the difficulty in achieving consensus within the Federal Reserve due to recent economic data scarcity and differing views on neutral interest rates, suggesting a pause in policy evaluation [15]