碳酸锂：强现实与强预期的“二人转”

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market in 2025 is expected to experience a strong supply and demand dynamic, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to high price volatility and a focus on the pace of marginal supply release [4][20]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply growth rate is lower than the demand growth rate, indicating a supply-demand mismatch that will keep prices elevated [4][24]. - The core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market has shifted from "high total inventory" to "actual tight balance under structural differentiation," with smelter inventories at historical lows and downstream usable inventories tight [11][20]. Policy Sensitivity - The demand side remains highly sensitive to policies such as subsidies, tax reductions, and resource tax/mining rights policies [6]. Market Positioning - The market is currently in a low-level wide fluctuation phase after "squeezing out excess," with significant reversals expected only after 2026 when supply rebalances [7]. Yichun Mining Rights Incident - The temporary production halt due to the Yichun mining rights issue may lead to repeated fluctuations until 2027, with ongoing monitoring required [8]. Price and Inventory Trends - The average monthly price of lithium carbonate is projected to fluctuate, with significant variations in production, imports, and consumption throughout 2025 [15]. - The overall expectation for the lithium carbonate market in 2026 is a consensus on a "price central rebound," driven by strengthening downstream demand [20]. Nigerian Mining Suspension - The recent suspension of mining in northern Nigeria has raised market concerns, but the actual impact may be less significant than perceived, as long-term growth in lithium exports from Nigeria to China is expected to continue [23]. Conclusion - Current strong realities (low inventory) and strong expectations (growing demand) for lithium carbonate prices suggest a lack of basis for significant declines, while close attention should be paid to the pace of supply release and policy changes [26].