中国资产价值必将重估

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the true measure of asset value lies in productivity, which is essential for improving human life and is the foundation of a nation's strength [2][4]. Group 1: China's Economic Strength - The year 2025 is highlighted as a significant year for reassessing China's strength on a global scale [5]. - China's assets have been severely undervalued in the past, and a mean reversion is expected in the future [6]. - Unlike Japan, which has seen a decline in productivity since the 1990s, China continues to innovate and maintain strong productivity levels [8][14]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Despite predictions of a significant decline in exports due to the US-China trade war, China's trade surplus reached a record high, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year [17][20]. - The global market has become increasingly dependent on China, indicating that the US's trade war efforts are likely to fail [21][22]. - The article notes that European countries are becoming more reliant on Chinese products while struggling to sell their goods to China [30][31]. Group 3: Structural Issues and Global Demand - The article argues that deflation and overcapacity are merely structural issues and not indicative of a long-term economic decline [51]. - There is a vast unmet demand within China and globally, suggesting that production capacity is still insufficient [52]. - As China's manufacturing capabilities improve, more people worldwide will be able to afford industrial goods, leading to increased global productivity [47][48]. Group 4: Military Power and Asset Revaluation - China's military strength is presented as a crucial factor supporting the revaluation of its assets, providing a deterrent against external pressures [54][55]. - The article suggests that developed countries will need to adopt peaceful cooperation with China rather than confrontational approaches [55]. Group 5: Changing Perceptions - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal moment for Western countries to change their perceptions of China, recognizing its advanced productivity and the necessity of engaging with its supply chains [56][57]. - The article concludes that as global perceptions of China shift, the value of Chinese assets will continue to appreciate, driven by strong productivity advancements [59][60].