【招银研究|海外宏观】如期降息，启动扩表——美联储议息会议点评（2025年12月）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50-3.75%, indicating a shift towards a more dovish stance amid internal divisions within the committee [1][5][6]. Economic Outlook - The Fed expresses confidence in a "Goldilocks" scenario where high growth and stable inflation are expected to occur simultaneously, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast raised by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3% and PCE inflation forecast lowered by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% [3][4]. - Concerns about employment risks are prioritized over inflation risks, with indications that the labor market is cooling down [3][4]. Policy Decisions - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects increasing internal divisions, with 6 out of 19 committee members opposing the rate cut, suggesting a potential pause in future cuts [5][6]. - The initiation of a reserve management-type balance sheet expansion (RMP) aims to maintain liquidity, with an initial expansion rate of $40 billion per month [5][6]. Forward Guidance - The Fed may implement 2-4 additional rate cuts in 2026, totaling 50-100 basis points, with a potential slowing of the rate cut pace to one cut every two meetings [6][7]. - The Fed's balance sheet expansion will align with nominal GDP growth, with a mid-term expansion rate expected to be between $200-300 million per month [6][7]. Market Reactions - Market expectations for future rate cuts have shifted from 70 basis points to 53 basis points, with U.S. Treasury yields declining across the board [7][8]. - The stock market remains supported by the Fed's rate cuts, although concerns about high valuations and potential AI bubbles may lead to increased volatility [8][9]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar index has weakened, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately due to the ongoing rate cut cycle [9][10]. - Gold prices are anticipated to remain in a bullish trend, influenced by the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [10].