张亚勤院士：基础大模型最终不超过10个，十年后机器人比人多

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) towards a new paradigm characterized by the integration of information, physical, and biological intelligence, driven by advancements in large models and the emergence of intelligent agents [2][12]. Group 1: AI Evolution and Key Milestones - The transition from discriminative AI to generative AI is highlighted, with ChatGPT and DeepSeek identified as significant milestones in this evolution [4][10]. - The concept of "intelligent emergence" is introduced, where AI capabilities expand beyond mere pattern recognition to more complex functions as data and computational power increase [3][11]. - The future of AI is envisioned as an "Internet of Intelligent Agents," where foundational large models will serve as operating systems, with a limited number of global players [6][23]. Group 2: Trends in AI Development - Five key trends in AI development are outlined, including the shift from generative AI to intelligent agents, which are expected to replace traditional SaaS and applications [15][30]. - The scaling law's impact on pre-training has slowed, while post-training and inference stages are gaining momentum, with inference costs decreasing significantly [19][23]. - The integration of visual, language, and action models is anticipated, with advancements in autonomous driving and robotics being pivotal areas of growth [20][21]. Group 3: Future Directions and Implications - The article predicts that the next 5-10 years will see the rise of the intelligent agent internet, fundamentally reshaping industry structures and economic models [23][38]. - The role of intelligent agents in various sectors, including healthcare, is emphasized, with the potential for agents to assist professionals rather than replace them [34][31]. - The development of new algorithmic frameworks and memory systems is deemed essential for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next 15-20 years [40][42].