高盛观点 | 中国股市投资“五年规划”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' research team emphasizes that interpreting and following China's Five-Year Plan could yield excess returns, introducing the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio [1][3]. Group 1: Five-Year Plan Goals - Since 2001, China has achieved nearly 90% of its quantitative growth and development targets across five Five-Year Plans [2]. - The details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) will be officially announced in March next year, focusing on high-quality, safe, and balanced growth, technology/innovation, and improving people's quality of life [2]. Group 2: Excess Returns from Policy Adherence - Goldman Sachs' Asia macro team has developed tools to analyze China's policy environment, which is more nuanced than other major markets due to data availability and quality [3]. - Historical data shows that the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index have achieved an annualized total return of 8-10%, slightly below the nominal GDP growth rate of 11% [3]. - By utilizing text analysis based on large language models (LLM), the research indicates that investors could achieve an annualized excess return of 13% by adjusting their portfolios according to overall policy trends [3]. Group 3: Redefining Excess Return Investment Portfolio - The Chinese stock market is extensive and liquid, with over 6,800 listed companies and a total market capitalization of $19 trillion [5]. - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team has constructed the "15th Five-Year Plan" investment portfolio based on 35 GICS sectors, focusing on industries expected to benefit from policy support and specifically mentioned in the plan [5]. - These sectors represent a total market capitalization of $13 trillion, accounting for 66% of the entire Chinese stock market, and include themes such as private enterprise return, overseas expansion, AI, anti-involution, and shareholder returns [5]. Group 4: Launch of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Investment Portfolio - Goldman Sachs has selected 50 mid-cap stocks (30 A-shares and 20 overseas-listed Chinese stocks) based on growth, valuation, and quality criteria [8]. - This selected portfolio has achieved a total return of 68% over the past year, compared to 35% for the MSCI China Index, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 26 times and a dynamic PEG of 1.0 [8]. - Market consensus predicts that the portfolio will have an average annual compound growth rate of 30% in earnings per share over the next two years [8].