研报 | 预计2026年第一季度存储器涨势持续强劲，智能手机、笔电品牌启动价格上修与规格降级

Core Insights - The article highlights the anticipated significant increase in memory prices in Q1 2026, which will lead to cost challenges for global end products, particularly in the smartphone and laptop industries. This situation is expected to result in price adjustments and specification reductions, concentrating resource advantages among a few leading brands [2][3]. Memory Price Impact on Smartphones - Memory components are increasingly affecting the BOM cost of consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs. For instance, the iPhone series will see a notable rise in memory's share of BOM cost, prompting Apple to reconsider new device pricing and potentially reduce or eliminate price cuts on older models [2][3]. - Android brands, which target the mid-to-low price market, will also face pressure to raise new device prices and adjust old device pricing or supply cycles due to the soaring memory prices [2][3]. Adjustments in Laptop Market - Laptop brands are expected to modify their product mix, procurement strategies, and regional sales layouts in response to rising memory prices. High-end lightweight laptops, which typically have mobile DRAM soldered onto the motherboard, will likely experience the most significant price pressure [3]. - The consumer laptop market may maintain existing pricing in the short term due to inventory support but is expected to enter a notable price adjustment phase by Q2 2026 [3]. Specification Adjustments - Brands are increasingly adopting "spec reduction" or "upgrade postponement" as necessary strategies to balance costs, particularly with DRAM, which has a high cost share. High-end and mid-range products will see DRAM capacity specifications converge towards the market's minimum standards, slowing down enhancement speeds [3]. - The low-end market will be the most affected price segment, with smartphones expected to revert to a predominant 4GB configuration in 2026. Low-cost laptops will face limitations in DRAM configuration adjustments due to processor and operating system requirements [3][4]. Summary of Adjusted Specifications - Smartphones: - High-end: 12-16GB (slower progression towards 16GB) - Mid-range: 6-8GB (12GB gradually disappearing) - Low-end: 4GB (returning to 4GB due to supply and cost limits) [4] - Laptops: - High-end: 16-64GB (mainstream shipments concentrated at 16GB) - Mid-range: 8-16GB (shifting towards 8GB) - Low-end: 8GB (short-term adjustments unlikely) [4]