没那么“鹰派”的“鹰派降息”，“不是QE”的扩表买债

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, while indicating a significant internal division among policymakers regarding future monetary policy actions [2][5][10]. Group 1: Rate Cut and Internal Disagreement - The target range for the federal funds rate has been adjusted from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - This decision faced three dissenting votes, the highest level of disagreement in six years, reflecting concerns over inflation and the labor market [4][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2][10]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Future Actions - The CME tools show an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year [2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a potential pause in rate cuts after this decision [2][3]. - The Fed has initiated a reserve management program, planning to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities to address liquidity pressures in the money market [8][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed's statement has shifted to emphasize the "magnitude and timing" of future rate adjustments, indicating a higher threshold for further cuts [7][8]. - The economic outlook has been adjusted, with an increase in GDP growth expectations and a slight decrease in PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years [11][12]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, highlighting a challenging economic environment [15][16].