碳酸锂调研报告：2026年为一个紧平衡年

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium carbonate supply and demand is expected to reach a tight balance by 2026, with concerns about the actual installed capacity in energy storage being a key risk factor affecting demand [2]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The main development directions in the new energy sector are photovoltaic and lithium batteries, which include lithium ore, cobalt, and nickel in the supply chain [3]. - Cobalt and nickel are primarily used in military and ternary material fields, while lithium carbonate has broader applications, including in power batteries and energy storage [4]. - African lithium mines have advantages of low cost and high grade, and are expected to become an important supply source for the lithium battery industry in the future [5]. - The expected increase in African lithium carbonate supply by 2026 is estimated to be between 120,000 to 150,000 tons, mainly from Nigeria [6]. - The mining cost of lithium in Nigeria is below 50,000 yuan per ton, providing a significant cost advantage [7]. - Chinese companies have made substantial investments in Nigerian lithium mines, indicating a large future supply potential [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing tight supply-demand relationships, with significant price volatility and uneven profit distribution across the supply chain [10]. - The demand growth rates for power batteries and energy storage markets differ, necessitating attention to changes in the power battery market [11]. - After 2028, the contribution of recycling to lithium carbonate supply is expected to increase significantly, potentially impacting the market [12]. Group 3: Company Strategies - The battery industry is currently in a rapid development phase, with solid-state batteries being a future trend. Leading companies have advantages in materials and technology, but the entire supply chain still faces challenges related to inventory management and price volatility [13]. - Company B has performed well this year, with leading companies holding a competitive edge in materials and technology [14]. - Profit distribution is uneven across the supply chain, with downstream energy storage yielding higher returns [15]. - Inventory management and price fluctuations are major issues facing the current supply chain [16]. Group 4: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices are influenced by market supply-demand and inventory changes, exhibiting significant volatility. There are differing market expectations regarding future price trends, but there is a general belief that prices will rise [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is affected by the price of electrolyte, indicating a correlation between the two [18]. - Regulatory policies from exchanges will significantly impact lithium carbonate prices [20]. Group 5: Profit Distribution - The majority of profits in the supply chain are concentrated in the upstream sector, while midstream profits are relatively low. Companies need to enhance risk management to avoid losses due to price fluctuations [21]. - Upstream profits are higher, while midstream companies face significant competitive pressure [22]. - Strategic decisions approved by the board can help stabilize company development and mitigate single risks [24]. Group 6: Future Focus Areas - Close attention should be paid to changes in the power battery market demand and its impact on the lithium carbonate market [25]. - A deeper understanding of the mining costs, grades, and future supply potential of African lithium mines is necessary [26]. - Exploring profit distribution mechanisms within the supply chain can promote healthy industry development [27].