史上最强存储上涨周期？瑞银：预计DDR季度环比上涨35%，NAND短缺至少到明年Q3

Core Insights - The storage industry is facing unprecedented supply-demand tension, with DRAM supply shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 and NAND shortages until Q3 2026 [1][2][3] - Significant price increases are anticipated, with DDR contract prices expected to rise by 35% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 and NAND prices by 20%, exceeding previous expectations [2][3] - Long-term supply agreements are being locked in by customers, particularly large cloud service providers extending orders to 2028, indicating strong actual demand rather than speculative hoarding [2][9] DRAM and NAND Market Dynamics - DRAM demand is projected to grow by 20.7%, outpacing supply growth of 18.6%, leading to a sustained supply shortage [3] - NAND shortages are expected to continue until Q3 2026, contributing to the strongest price increase cycle in nearly 30 years [2][4] - Server shipments are expected to increase by 12.9% in 2026, with a notable rise in AI server storage capacity [3] Customer Behavior and Inventory Levels - Customers are actively securing long-term supply contracts to mitigate procurement risks, with cloud service providers having more bargaining power compared to traditional OEMs [9] - Current inventory levels are low, with server DDR inventory at approximately 11 weeks, PC and mobile DRAM at 9 weeks, and SSD at 8 weeks, reflecting strong actual demand [9] Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The HBM market is expected to see stable competition, with SK Hynix projected to maintain a 70% market share in HBM4, becoming a primary supplier for major clients like Google [11] - Major storage manufacturers have had their target prices significantly raised, indicating positive market sentiment and expected growth in traditional server demand [11]