当美联储“独自降息”，其他央行甚至开始加息，美元贬值将成为2026年焦点

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market widely expects the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy next year, while other central banks like those in Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are generally maintaining a tightening stance [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, indicating a dovish tone despite some hawkish signals from Fed officials [3][4]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, predict further rate cuts in January, with expectations of a continued easing cycle [4][5]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Divergence - There is a noticeable divergence in monetary policy among global central banks, with the Fed continuing to lower rates while others, like the European Central Bank (ECB), maintain a tightening approach [3][7]. - ECB officials have emphasized their independence from the Fed's actions, indicating that they will not necessarily follow the Fed's lead in monetary policy adjustments [7][10]. Group 3: Impact of Currency Fluctuations - The anticipated divergence in monetary policy is expected to manifest through currency markets, with the dollar facing depreciation pressure, which could influence the ECB's policy decisions [3][10]. - The ECB's chief economist noted that a 10% appreciation of the euro could significantly suppress inflation, with the most pronounced effects occurring within the first year [9][10]. Group 4: Inflation Projections - The ECB has revised its inflation forecast for 2026 down to 1.7%, below its 2% target, indicating potential challenges if the Fed's rate cuts lead to further euro appreciation [10][11]. - The ECB's policy decisions may be constrained by the transmission effects of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation, despite their stated commitment to policy independence [10][11].