2026中国经济展望：走出价格低谷（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the emergence of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) as the new engine of growth [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The real estate sector has gradually exited the central stage of the economy, with GDP growth rates in regions heavily tied to real estate, such as Guangdong, lagging behind others like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4]. - By 2025, the contribution of real estate development investment to GDP is expected to drop significantly from 10.2% in 2020 to around 5.1% [4][30]. - The "three new economies" are projected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, indicating a growing importance of high-tech manufacturing and information technology investments [7]. Group 2: Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The shift reflects a broader economic transition where low-leverage sectors are becoming the main drivers of growth, as households work to reduce debt [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remained stable at 14.2% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in exports to Africa and the Middle East [13][21][24]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has become a key player in boosting China's export performance, with exports projected to reach 586 million units by 2024, surpassing Germany and Japan [13]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a second downturn, with housing prices expected to revert to levels seen in 2016, and total sales area projected to decline by nearly 50% from 2020 highs [30][31]. - The overall demand for real estate is stabilizing, with indicators like the price-to-income ratio and rental yields approaching mid-term stability [30]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Spending - The impact of real estate on consumer spending is diminishing, as evidenced by rising retail sales growth in first-tier cities despite falling housing prices [36]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, supported by policy measures, while traditional goods consumption faces challenges due to the decline in "old-for-new" subsidies [43][44]. Group 6: Price Trends and Inflation - The article anticipates a gradual recovery in prices driven by economic recovery, with CPI expected to rise to around 0.2% in 2026, influenced by various factors including the stabilization of housing prices [45][55]. - The PPI is projected to show a "front low, back high" trend, with overall PPI expected to be around -1.3% for the year [55].