国泰海通 · 晨报1212｜宏观、金融工程

Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal divisions among FOMC members increased, with 3 out of 12 voting against the decision, marking the first dissent since 2019 [2] - The Fed has become more optimistic about the U.S. economy and inflation, revising GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025 to 2028 and lowering unemployment rate predictions for 2027, while also reducing PCE and core PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The Fed announced a technical expansion of its balance sheet, starting in December with the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities, which is expected to remain high for several months before significantly reducing [2] - While the guidance for future rate cuts remains consistent with September's meeting, the language used is more cautious, indicating that future cuts will have a higher threshold [2] Interest Rate Outlook - It is anticipated that the Fed will continue to lower rates in 2026, influenced by structural changes in the labor market and political factors, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation [3] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may also impact the pace of rate cuts, with potential candidates advocating for more aggressive monetary easing [3] Bond Market and Stock Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline initially in 2026, reaching a low of around 3.5%-3.8% mid-year, before rising again as economic fundamentals improve [4] - The stock market, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates such as technology, real estate, and small-cap stocks, is expected to remain supported despite concerns over an AI bubble, which is viewed as a temporary structural issue [4] Asset Allocation Strategies - The macro factor-based asset allocation strategy has yielded a return of 4.25% this year, with a slight increase in November [10] - Recent performance of major asset classes shows gold and commodity indices rising, while equity assets experienced slight pullbacks, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]