中金2026年展望 | 造纸：供给收尾，原料为王

Core Viewpoint - The industry is expected to experience a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with varying supply dynamics across different paper types. The supply-demand balance for pulp paper remains relatively loose, while corrugated box paper is anticipated to recover first from the current supply-demand imbalance, leading to improved capacity utilization and price recovery [2][3][4]. Pulp Paper Supply and Demand - The supply-demand structure for pulp paper is expected to remain relatively loose, with a moderate recovery in overall paper demand anticipated for 2026. Although supply is nearing its peak, new capacity is expected to be released in 2025, leading to a relatively loose supply-demand balance, with cultural paper facing more pressure than specialty paper and white card paper [2][4]. - The price of pulp is becoming a key driver for inventory adjustments in the industry, with expectations of a year-on-year recovery in pulp prices in 2026, projected to fluctuate between $550 and $650 per ton [2][4][14]. Corrugated Box Paper - The demand for corrugated box paper is highly sensitive to consumer trends, with expected consumption growth rates of 8% and 4% for 2023 and 2024, respectively. The total consumption increase from 2022 to 2025 is estimated to be around 10 million tons [3][4]. - The expansion of supply has entered its final phase, with major players like Nine Dragons and Lee & Man halting expansion plans, leading to a favorable environment for price recovery in 2026 [3][4]. Raw Material Scarcity - The scarcity of quality forest and pulp assets is expected to increase, driven by global economic growth and limited high-quality forest resources. Companies with superior forest and pulp assets are likely to benefit [3][4]. Cultural Paper - The cultural paper segment is facing increasing supply-demand pressure, with expectations of a decline in profit margins in 2026 due to significant new capacity coming online and weak demand from educational materials [18][28]. - The industry is expected to see a decline in profit margins for cultural paper, with major players needing to focus on cost control capabilities, particularly in self-produced pulp [18][28]. White Card Paper - The white card paper segment is experiencing continued supply-demand weakness, with a slight price recovery observed in late 2025. However, the overall consumption remains weak, and the industry is expected to face challenges in achieving a balance in supply and demand [27][28]. - The industry is projected to have no significant new capacity additions in 2026, with the focus shifting towards cost control and the ability to self-supply raw materials [27][28]. Specialty Paper - The specialty paper sector is entering a consolidation phase, with increased competition from larger players and a potential decline in prices due to oversupply and weak demand [36][37]. - The market for specialty paper is expected to see a significant reshuffling, with smaller companies likely to exit as larger players expand their capacities [36][37]. Overall Industry Outlook - The overall outlook for the paper industry in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved capacity utilization and price recovery as the market digests past supply expansions and consumer demand gradually recovers [51][52].