继续实施更加积极的财政政策：申万期货早间评论-20251212

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties [1][7] - The meeting highlighted the need for a flexible and efficient monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [7][11] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy backing, capital flow, and industrial empowerment, with a potential increase in market risk appetite following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [3][10] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to increased supply pressure from domestic sugar factories and high production costs, despite some international price rebounds [2][29] - Copper prices rose over 2% due to expectations from the Federal Reserve's actions, with supply disruptions leading to a shift in global copper supply-demand expectations towards a deficit [3][19] - The aluminum market is supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, while short-term price momentum may weaken due to seasonal demand fluctuations [21] Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The automotive industry in China saw a record monthly production exceeding 3.5 million vehicles in November, with significant growth in new energy vehicle production and exports [8] - The international sugar market is influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected sugarcane processing and India's production recovery, which may impact global sugar prices [2][29] - The domestic methanol market is experiencing a slight increase in production capacity, but overall supply remains under pressure due to import delays and stable demand [14][29]