Top Charts | “鸽派”降息，重启“扩表”——12月FOMC例会点评与展望

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% and has initiated short-term Treasury purchases, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy in response to economic conditions [3][43]. Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with indicators showing a slight increase since the beginning of the year [4]. - The unemployment rate has edged up slightly as of September, reflecting a slowdown in job growth this year [4]. - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted down to 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively [8][9]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed will cease balance sheet reduction starting in December, with a plan to reinvest maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasuries [4][43]. - The decision to lower rates and restart asset purchases is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) but is aimed at ensuring sufficient reserves in the banking system [44]. Future Projections - GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward to 1.7% and 2.3%, respectively, while the unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.2% by 2027 [8][9]. - The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for rate changes remains unchanged, with expectations for one rate cut in both 2026 and 2027 [16][44]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index declined, while the 10-year Treasury yield initially rose to 4.19% before settling at 4.16% [43][27]. - Stock markets showed volatility, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experiencing fluctuations before closing higher [27][26].