VCSEL、EML、硅光、TFLN及Micro LED系列光芯片集成技术，谁将主导未来高速光互联赛道

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in AI computing demand is driving the adoption of optical modules, particularly 800G optical modules, as the mainstream configuration for AI data centers. The global optical module market is projected to reach $23.5 billion by 2025, with significant growth in both 800G and 1.6T modules [1]. Market Overview - The global shipment of 800G modules is expected to reach approximately 8 million units in 2024 and increase to around 20 million units in 2025. The shipment of 1.6T modules is projected to grow from 2.7 million units in 2024 to 4.2 million units in 2025 [1]. - The global optical chip market is anticipated to exceed $11 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20%. However, the domestic production rate of high-speed optical chips (25G and above) in China remains low, indicating significant room for market substitution [1]. Technology Insights - Current optical chips primarily utilize EML (Electro-absorption Modulated Laser) and VCSEL (Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser) technologies. EML offers advantages such as low cost, low frequency chirp, high modulation speed, and long-distance transmission, but has high manufacturing costs due to stringent production requirements [2][3]. - VCSEL is the mainstream optical chip for multi-module applications, characterized by its symmetrical circular light beam and low divergence angle, which facilitates efficient coupling to optical fibers. However, long-wavelength VCSELs face challenges in power output and manufacturing complexity [3][4]. Future Trends - As data centers transition to 400G/800G and higher speeds, the demand for more complex and power-hungry driving circuits and signal processing will increase, raising technical barriers. This has spurred the development of new optical chip integration technologies, including silicon photonic chips, thin-film lithium niobate chips, and Micro LED photonic chips [4][5]. - Silicon photonic integration is emerging as a key technology, leveraging existing CMOS processes to develop and integrate optical devices. It is expected to capture a market share of around 60% by 2030, up from approximately 30% in 2025 [5]. - Thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) technology is recognized for its potential in modern photonics, offering ultra-wide bandwidth and low power consumption, making it suitable for harsh environments and high-speed optical modules [7][8]. - Micro LED technology, while primarily used in display applications, is being explored for optical communication, though it faces challenges in commercial viability due to technical bottlenecks [9][10].