一位老牌“基金买手”拆解数据：过去6年回报最好的基金有一个共同特点……

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that funds with controlled maximum drawdowns (15%-30%) tend to yield the highest cumulative returns, contrary to the common belief that high volatility equates to high returns [2][14][19]. Fund Performance Insights - From January 1, 2020, to November 20, 2025, the median return of equity public funds was 44.78%, with an annualized return of approximately 6.45% and a median drawdown of 45.12% [10][12]. - The average return for funds with a maximum drawdown between 15% and 30% was 72.25%, with an annualized return of 9.6%, while only 10% of funds fell into this category [15][18]. - Funds with severe drawdowns (over 60%) had a return of 26.80%, while those with moderate drawdowns (45%-30%) had a return of 66.80% [16][21]. Investor Behavior and Fund Selection - Investors often struggle to profit from high-volatility funds due to emotional reactions during market fluctuations, leading to poor timing in buying and selling [3][28]. - The article suggests that investors should focus on understanding their own risk tolerance and seek effective risk management rather than chasing high-risk narratives [3][24]. Comparison of Fund Types - Secondary bond funds have shown better risk-return characteristics, with a maximum drawdown of only 12% compared to 57% for equity mixed funds, while their median return was 5.06% versus 7.07% for equity funds [33][34]. - The article highlights that the volatility of A-shares necessitates a forced rebalancing in secondary bond funds, which improves their risk-return profile [37][41]. Market Trends and Themes - The article discusses the potential pitfalls of investing based on large thematic trends, such as artificial intelligence, suggesting that not all major themes lead to sustainable investment opportunities [44][51]. - Historical examples illustrate that significant market trends do not always correlate with long-term investment success, as seen with companies like Alibaba and the performance of various funds during different market cycles [52][54].