KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 第一财经·2025-12-12 03:37Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai continues to decline, with wholesale prices dropping below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, leading to divergent market opinions on its future trajectory [3][4]. Price Trends - On December 10, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai fell to 1500 yuan per bottle, and by December 12, it had dropped to 1485 yuan for loose bottles and 1495 yuan for boxed bottles [3]. - Prior to November 20, prices had rebounded to 1655 yuan for loose bottles and 1690 yuan for boxed bottles, with retail prices exceeding 1700 yuan [3]. Market Sentiment - Many distributors and retailers have lost confidence in Moutai's pricing, adopting a quick turnover strategy instead of stockpiling, anticipating that prices will not rebound in the short term [3][4]. - Some distributors believe that the current price fluctuations are less concerning, as the consumer base remains stable regardless of price changes [4]. Impact on Distributors - The pressure from declining prices is primarily affecting Moutai distributors and the company itself, with distributors facing increased financial strain due to the costs associated with various Moutai products [4]. - The scarcity of Moutai distribution rights leads most distributors to choose to weather the storm alongside the manufacturer [4]. Market Rationalization - Analysts suggest that the decline in Feitian Moutai's wholesale price is a sign of market rationalization, which could eliminate speculative bubbles and align prices with genuine consumer demand [4][5]. - The ongoing price drop may compel distributors to shift from a passive to an active sales approach, enhancing service and innovative marketing to build competitive advantages [4].