【招银研究|政策】开局之年，提质增效——2025年中央经济工作会议学习体会

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a balanced approach to domestic economic work and international trade, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [1] Group 1: Work Tone - The conference adopts a pragmatic and positive tone, affirming that the main economic goals for 2025 will be met, with an expected GDP growth rate of 5% [2] - It acknowledges persistent challenges in economic development, including external environmental changes, domestic supply-demand imbalances, and risks in key areas [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy will maintain strength and enhance effectiveness, with a focus on both existing and new policies [5] - Fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of 4% for 2026, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion, an increase of 190 billion from 2025 [7] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, prioritizing economic stability over inflation, with expectations for a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirement ratios [9] Group 3: Key Work Areas - The conference identifies eight key work areas, with "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, focusing on increasing residents' income and optimizing supply [10] - Innovation-driven policies will see significant changes, including the establishment of a comprehensive education and technology talent development plan [12] - Emphasis on green transformation and addressing risks in key areas, particularly in real estate and local government debt [14][15]