泡泡玛特如何逃离“LABUBU悖论”？

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has been on a continuous decline for nearly four months, dropping over 40% from its mid-year peak, raising concerns among multiple institutions about the company's future prospects [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - As of December 12, Pop Mart's market capitalization has evaporated by nearly 200 billion HKD since its high in August [1]. - Despite a significant increase in stock price earlier this year, the company is now facing skepticism from various foreign institutions, which have issued bearish reports [4]. - The stock price fell over 8% on the day the company announced a 245% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, indicating a disconnect between performance and market perception [4][5]. Group 2: Product Supply and Demand Dynamics - The stock price decline coincided with a supply increase of the LABUBU product, which led to a decrease in its market value and a cooling of consumer demand [3][6]. - The company increased LABUBU's production capacity from an average of 10 million units per month in the first half of the year to 50 million units by year-end, impacting its scarcity premium [6]. Group 3: Strategic Changes and Future Outlook - A recent appointment of a former LVMH executive as a non-executive director suggests a potential shift towards exploring higher-end collaborations [7]. - Pop Mart has not engaged in stock buybacks during the recent downturn, contrasting with its previous actions during past low points, indicating a different approach to market confidence and capital allocation [7][9]. - The company is at a crossroads, with analysts providing two valuation scenarios: a bearish outlook if LABUBU's popularity declines without new IPs, and a bullish scenario if existing IPs maintain their appeal and new ones emerge [9].