赵伟:财政货币政策协同发力,聚焦结构性投资机遇
申万宏源宏观·2025-12-12 16:04

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to explore economic potential and coordinate policies and reforms, focusing on stabilizing domestic demand and aligning policy direction with current development trends [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy will continue to adopt a "more proactive" approach, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties and encouraging local debt management [3]. - The conference highlights the importance of increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to enhance investment stability by 2026 [3]. Monetary Policy - Monetary policy aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, indicating potential for future monetary easing through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [3]. - The integration of existing and new policies will be assessed for consistency with current economic goals, suggesting structural adjustments to outdated policies [3]. Domestic Demand and Investment - The conference underscores the principle of "demand-led growth," focusing on increasing urban and rural residents' income, unleashing service consumption potential, and stabilizing investment [3][4]. - The investment strategy includes increasing central budget investments and precise fiscal support to enhance investment stability in 2026 [3]. Green Development - Green development is prioritized, with a focus on "dual carbon" goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system, including plans for energy strength and expanding green electricity applications [4]. - The policies are expected to positively impact sectors such as consumption, technology, and new energy, with specific benefits for the new energy industry chain [4]. Market Impact - The conference's policies are expected to have a structural impact on the stock market, favoring sectors related to domestic demand, technology, and green transformation [4]. - The focus on innovation and the establishment of technology hubs in major regions will benefit companies in technology, AI, and high-end manufacturing [4].