【宏观】如期降息，扩表在途——2025年12月FOMC会议点评（赵格格/周欣平）

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a dovish stance [4][5] - The Fed initiated a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program, committing to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury bonds monthly starting in December, aimed at releasing liquidity [5] - Economic outlook has been adjusted positively, with the GDP growth forecast for 2026 raised by 0.5 percentage points, while the core PCE inflation forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a controlled inflation environment [5] Market Reaction - As of December 10, major indices showed positive movement: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.0%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% [6] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 5 basis points to 4.13%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 7 basis points to 3.54% [6] - The US dollar index closed at 98.64, reflecting market adjustments following the Fed's announcement [6] Future Outlook - The Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, with potential cuts occurring 2-3 times from June to November, depending on the new Fed chair's leadership [5] - The second quarter of 2026 may present a favorable window for Treasury bond investments, contingent on the resolution of uncertainties such as tariff judicial decisions and government shutdowns [5]