【广发宏观钟林楠】如何理解11月金融数据

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November indicates a notable improvement in corporate financing demand, with the initial effects of policy financial tools becoming evident. However, the residential sector remains a significant shortcoming, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][11]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [1][5]. - The increase in real credit was 405.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decline was primarily driven by a reduction in residential loans [6][7]. - Corporate loans remained strong, aligning with the high BCI corporate financing environment index for November, indicating a shift in bank assessments towards corporate sectors due to weak residential loan demand [2][7]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan, with expectations for December financing to remain around 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, driven by policy encouragement for technology finance and lower financing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Trust and Other Financing Instruments - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant expansion in bank bill issuance, likely influenced by lower interest rates [9]. - Trust loans increased by 84.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3 billion yuan, partly due to the spillover effects of policy financial tools on infrastructure financing [9]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend following a peak in September [10]. - M2 growth was recorded at 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to reduced credit generation [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The main highlight of the November financial data is the improvement in corporate financing demand, with a need to monitor the impact of policy financial tools in the upcoming quarters, especially in the construction sector [4][11].