Oracle(US:ORCL) 美股IPO·2025-12-13 02:19Core Viewpoint - Oracle is becoming a key indicator for measuring AI risks in the credit market due to its weaker credit rating and expanding debt, which has drawn market attention [1][11][10] Group 1: Market Reactions - A report about Oracle's data center delays triggered significant volatility in AI infrastructure-related stocks and bonds, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 5%, marking its largest decline in two months [3][6] - Oracle's stock price fell by nearly 4.5% after the report, accumulating a total drop of 14.8% over two trading days [3][12] - The panic spread across the tech sector, affecting major companies like Nvidia and CoreWeave, with Nvidia's stock down over 3% and CoreWeave down 11% [5][6] Group 2: Bond Market Impact - Oracle's investment-grade bonds faced severe sell-offs, with its 5.2% coupon bond maturing in 2035 seeing its yield rise to 5.9%, surpassing the average yield of the highest-rated junk bonds at 5.69% [5][8] - Investors in Oracle's $18 billion investment-grade bonds issued in September are facing paper losses totaling approximately $1.35 billion [8] - The credit default swap (CDS) spreads for Oracle surged, indicating heightened concerns about potential debt defaults, reaching levels not seen since the 2009 financial crisis [8][12] Group 3: AI Infrastructure Concerns - The market's concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending were exacerbated by disappointing earnings from Broadcom, which revealed that AI order backlogs did not meet high expectations [7][10] - Oracle is a core participant in the "Stargate" project, which aims to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure, further increasing its debt exposure [10][11] - The uncertainty surrounding the future of data centers and the potential for oversupply due to more efficient chips raises alarms for credit investors [12]