华创医药周观点：2025Q3实体药店市场分析2025/12/13

Market Overview - The overall sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector remains cautious, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index declining by 1.10%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.02 percentage points, ranking 15th among 30 primary sectors [9] - The retail scale of physical pharmacies in China for the first three quarters of 2025 reached CNY 449 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with Q3 showing a cumulative scale of CNY 152.9 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year but up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter [21][15] Drug Market Analysis - The drug retail market in Q3 experienced a slight year-on-year decline, attributed to factors such as reduced incidence of respiratory diseases. The cumulative scale for the first three quarters was CNY 3,654 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year, with Q3 retail scale at CNY 1,241 billion, also down 0.8% year-on-year [28][23] - The sales growth rate for major drug categories showed a downward trend, with the largest decline seen in health products, exceeding 17%, while the smallest decline was in pharmaceuticals, slightly down by 1.2% [22] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Analysis - The cumulative scale of TCM retail in physical pharmacies for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 344 billion, down 4.4% year-on-year, with Q3 cumulative scale at CNY 117 billion, down 4.1% year-on-year [25] - Monthly retail scale for TCM showed fluctuations, with September seeing a significant month-on-month increase of 9.8%, indicating potential recovery [25] Medical Device Market Analysis - The medical device market showed signs of recovery in Q3, with a cumulative scale of CNY 210 billion for the first three quarters, down 1.9% year-on-year, and Q3 cumulative scale at CNY 73 billion, remaining stable year-on-year [35][29] - The market for high-value consumables, particularly in orthopedics, is expected to grow due to increased surgical volumes and domestic market consolidation following procurement policies [46] Health Products Market Analysis - The cumulative scale of health products in physical pharmacies for the first three quarters was CNY 171 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, with Q3 cumulative scale at CNY 57 billion, down 13.6% year-on-year [32] - Monthly retail scale for health products showed a recovery trend in September, with a month-on-month increase of 22.2%, indicating a narrowing of the year-on-year decline [32] Investment Opportunities - The pharmaceutical sector is viewed as having low valuations, with public funds showing low allocation to the sector. The anticipated recovery in macroeconomic factors and the potential for significant growth in large categories are seen as positive indicators for the industry [13] - The innovation drug sector is expected to shift focus from quantity to quality, emphasizing differentiated products and internationalization, with recommendations to focus on companies that can deliver profits [13]