投资大家谈 | 12月鹏华基金基本面投资专家观点启示录

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the current short-term market fluctuations do not alter the long-term upward trend, presenting a favorable opportunity for investors to position themselves for the upcoming year [1][5][6]. Active Equity - The market is currently experiencing short-term adjustments, but the upward trend remains intact, particularly in advanced manufacturing represented by technology, as well as in cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4][6]. - The domestic electronic and communication industry is expected to see stronger earnings certainty over the next two years due to rising capital expenditures in AI from global cloud vendors [6]. - The lithium battery supply chain is anticipated to gradually recover profitability, driven by increasing demand for energy storage [6]. - Non-bank financial institutions are projected to see an increase in return on equity (ROE) as economic conditions improve, with the overall equity market valuation remaining attractive [6][8]. Fixed Income - The convertible bond market is expected to have upward potential, with opportunities for investors to buy during market adjustments in December [18][20]. - The bond market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with weak fundamentals supporting the market, while the potential for interest rate declines and credit spread compression is anticipated [22][23]. - The strategy suggests maintaining a barbell structure and increasing leverage to participate in duration plays [24]. Quantitative Index - The underlying support for the AI+ theme remains strong, with the market transitioning from an overcrowded state to a phase focused on uncovering alpha [27][28]. - The market is expected to provide opportunities for value-based investments, particularly in large and mid-cap stocks, as the focus shifts towards fundamental-driven strategies [28]. Multi-Asset - The article discusses the shift in the US-China strategic competition and the potential collapse of the US debt and fiscal system, which may create opportunities in the domestic market despite current valuations [39]. - The focus is on the upcoming FOMC meeting and its implications for interest rates, with expectations of a gradual weakening of the dollar as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [41][42].