Core Viewpoint - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to the misalignment of fiscal debt issuance timing, with significant liquidity injections from the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds in November 2024, which supported M1 and economic growth in the first half of 2025 but led to a lack of improvement in M1 growth by the end of the year [2][8][49] Financial Data Summary - As of November 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, while the total social financing stock remained flat at 8.5%, and M1 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% [1][7][47] - The M1 growth decline is also linked to a decrease in household deposits, which is directly related to a contraction in household credit demand, with significant reductions in short-term loans [2][11][38] - In November, corporate loans were primarily short-term, with a slight increase in short-term loans and bill financing, while medium to long-term loans saw a minor decline, indicating a cautious investment attitude among enterprises despite rising PPI [16][49] Social Financing and Government Debt - The growth rate of social financing stock showed signs of recovery, primarily due to a narrowing decline in government debt net financing, which decreased by 1,048 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly less than the 5,643 billion yuan decline in October [3][21][49] - The government debt net financing plan for December indicates a remaining quota of 1.2 trillion yuan, while the financing for December 2024 is projected to be as high as 17,566 billion yuan, which may again pressure social financing growth [21][49] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, future monetary policy may become more proactive [23][49] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, to adapt to macroeconomic conditions [23][49] Regular Tracking of Financial Indicators - In November, new credit totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in household loans [4][50] - The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year decrease in household deposits by 120 billion yuan, corporate deposits by 94.7 billion yuan, and fiscal deposits by 190 billion yuan [38][50]
数据点评 | M1回落或源于财政“错位”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2025-12-13 13:19