申万宏观·周度研究成果（12.6-12.12）

Deep Topics - The article highlights the "blind spot" in the bond market, warning of the "high volatility" trap in a low-interest-rate environment, where adjustments can occur within 1-2 months, leading to changes of 50-100 basis points [4][6]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to focus on structural investment opportunities, suggesting that such collaboration can enhance economic resilience [6][8]. Hot Topics - The outlook for the U.S. labor market in 2026 is discussed, questioning whether the trend of "jobless growth" will continue [11]. - The Political Bureau meeting aims to achieve a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on balancing economic work and trade struggles while emphasizing the effectiveness of policies [13][16]. - Economic indicators show a rebound in exports and a strengthening CPI, raising questions about the overall economic performance in terms of volume and price [15][19]. - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines ten highlights, including the need for a proactive fiscal policy, increasing fiscal deficit rates, and supporting key areas through enhanced government spending [16][18].