张瑜：国债到底“贵不贵”？——基于三大框架的定量思考

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the frameworks for analyzing the ten-year government bond yield, emphasizing its relationship with nominal GDP growth, dividend yield, supply-demand dynamics, and monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: International Experience Framework - The ten-year government bond yield represents the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to its economic growth and investment returns [2]. - Before unconventional monetary policies are implemented, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5% [2][22]. - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85% [7][22]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Perspective - The "scissors difference" between corporate and household deposits indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading to upward pressure on bond yields [10][11]. - Over the past year, this scissors difference has increased by 9%, suggesting a higher probability of rising ten-year bond yields in the coming year [11][30]. - The non-bank investment gap has been trending upward since October 2024, indicating a higher risk appetite among financial institutions [13][34]. Group 3: Policy Perspective - The ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate in recent years, with a difference of 12 basis points in 2022, 38 basis points in 2023, and 30 basis points in 2024 [3][37]. - Given the current strong equity market and the central bank's focus on preventing fund idling, the downward space for the ten-year bond yield is relatively limited [3][39]. - The expectation for unconventional monetary policy in 2025 has cooled, suggesting that the ten-year bond yield may gradually return to a normal range [4][39].