如何理解美联储重启扩表？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) tool starting December 12, with a plan to purchase $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities in the first month, maintaining a high level of purchases in subsequent months. This RMP is expected to inject approximately $150 billion in reserves into the market, lasting until Q2 2026, primarily focusing on ultra-short-term Treasury securities [2][5][25]. Group 1: Actions by the Federal Reserve - The RMP is a significant highlight of the December FOMC meeting, aimed at maintaining adequate reserve levels and addressing seasonal fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA) [5][6]. - The RMP will primarily purchase short-term Treasury securities, with 75% of purchases targeting securities with maturities of 1-4 months [25][26]. - The RMP is expected to last at least until Q2 2026, with a target reserve balance of around $3 trillion, requiring an injection of approximately $150 billion in reserves [6][28]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMP - The RMP is expected to improve short-term liquidity, benefiting the stock market by facilitating "loose trading" conditions. However, it is not equivalent to quantitative easing (QE) and may have limited effects on long-term interest rates and financing costs for the real economy [7][35]. - The RMP's operational scale is designed to counteract seasonal liquidity pressures, particularly during tax payment periods, which can tighten market liquidity [6][29]. Group 3: Current Liquidity Conditions - The current reserve levels are slightly below the reasonable range, with the reserve balance to nominal GDP ratio at 9.5% and the reserve balance to total bank assets ratio at 11.8% [8][45]. - Maintaining adequate reserve levels is crucial for the effective implementation of the Federal Reserve's "floor system" monetary policy framework, which relies on sufficient reserves to control market interest rates [9][51]. - The liquidity conditions are tighter than desired, but the situation is better than during the previous QT phase, reducing the risk of a liquidity crisis [41][60].