东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-12-13 15:42Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]