光大证券研究·2025-12-14 00:03Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak credit expansion in November 2025, highlighting insufficient demand and a significant increase in short-term loans and bills, while long-term loans remain sluggish [4][5][6]. Group 1: Credit Expansion and Loan Data - In November, new RMB loans totaled 390 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion, falling short of the expected 504.3 billion [4]. - The total new RMB loans from January to November reached 15.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 trillion, indicating a low credit issuance environment in the second half of the year [4]. - The annual loan issuance is projected to be around 16 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2 trillion, leading to an expected year-end loan growth rate of about 6.3% [4]. Group 2: Corporate Loans and Short-term Financing - New corporate loans in November amounted to 610 billion, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion, with short-term loans and bills contributing significantly [5][6]. - Bills accounted for over 70% of new corporate loans, while short-term loans saw a substantial increase, totaling 4.4 trillion from January to November, significantly higher than the five-year average [6]. - Long-term loans showed a decrease, with a total of 8.5 trillion added from January to November, down 1.6 trillion year-on-year [6]. Group 3: Household Loans and Consumer Activity - In November, household loans decreased by 206.3 billion, continuing the negative trend from October, with total household loans from January to November at 533.3 billion, down 1.8 trillion year-on-year [7]. - The decline in household loans is attributed to weak employment and income conditions, leading to reduced willingness to purchase homes and consume [7]. Group 4: Social Financing and Monetary Indicators - New social financing in November reached 2.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion, maintaining an 8.5% growth rate [8]. - M2 growth remained stable at 8%, while M1 growth decreased to 4.9%, indicating a widening gap between M2 and M1 growth rates [9].