申万宏观·周度研究成果（12.6-12.12）

Deep Dive - The article highlights the "blind spot" in the bond market, warning of the "high volatility" trap in a low-interest-rate environment, where adjustments can occur within 1-2 months, leading to changes of 50-100 basis points [4][6]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to focus on structural investment opportunities, suggesting that such collaboration can enhance economic resilience [6][8]. Hot Topics - A significant reversal and rebalancing in the U.S. labor market is anticipated for 2026, questioning whether the trend of "jobless growth" will continue [11]. - The Political Bureau meeting aims to achieve a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on the integration of economic work and trade struggles, while emphasizing the importance of policy effectiveness and economic growth [13][16]. - Economic indicators show a rebound in exports and a strengthening CPI since November, raising questions about the overall economic performance and potential highlights as the year closes [15][19]. - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines ten key highlights, including the need for a proactive fiscal policy, increasing fiscal deficit rates, and ensuring robust support for key sectors [16][18].