数据点评 | M1回落或源于财政“错位”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to the misalignment of fiscal debt issuance schedules, with significant liquidity injections into enterprises through a large-scale debt replacement policy initiated in November 2024, which has led to a lack of improvement in M1 growth by the end of 2025 [2][8][48] Financial Data Summary - As of November 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, while the stock of social financing remained flat at 8.5%, and M1 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% [1][7][47] - The M1 growth decline is also linked to a decrease in household deposits, which is directly related to a contraction in household credit demand, with reductions of 520.4 billion and 476.3 billion yuan in October and November respectively [2][11][48] - In November, corporate loans were primarily short-term, with a slight increase in short-term loans and bill financing, while medium to long-term loans saw a minor decline, indicating a cautious investment attitude among enterprises despite rising PPI [16][49] Social Financing and Government Debt - The growth rate of social financing showed signs of recovery, primarily due to a narrowing decline in government debt net financing, which decreased by 1.048 billion yuan in November compared to a larger decline of 5.643 billion yuan in October [3][21][49] - The remaining government debt net financing quota for December is 1.2 trillion yuan, with a projected high of 17.566 trillion yuan for December 2024, which may again negatively impact social financing growth [21][49] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, future monetary policy may become more proactive, with the People's Bank of China indicating a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools [23][49]