【广发宏观团队】从宏观视角看入境消费

Group 1: Macroeconomic Perspective on Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption has been growing rapidly, with inbound tourists reaching 131.9 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, and total spending of $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [1] - The proportion of inbound consumption to GDP in China is approximately 0.5%, compared to 1% to 3% in major countries, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the inbound consumption environment, as highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to cultivate international consumption centers and improve the convenience of inbound tourism [2] Group 2: Advantages and Challenges of Inbound Consumption - China possesses rich natural and historical resources, with 60 UNESCO World Heritage sites, and a robust manufacturing sector that offers diverse products at competitive prices [2] - The supply capacity of tourism infrastructure is currently insufficient, which may constrain the overall experience for inbound tourists [3] - The government is working on optimizing tourism public service systems to match the high-quality development of the tourism industry [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Environment - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate, impacting global markets, with tech stocks experiencing volatility while cyclical and financial sectors show gains [4] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a notable increase in the computing power chain, while the overall trading volume has decreased [9] - The liquidity in the market remains loose, with overnight funding rates hitting new lows, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [22][23] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, aiming to stabilize investment growth and optimize the use of special bonds [25][26] - The government is focusing on enhancing financial support for the real economy, with an emphasis on maintaining low financing costs and improving the efficiency of monetary policy tools [22][23] - The upcoming policies are expected to address structural issues in the economy, including the optimization of consumption policies and the resolution of local government debt risks [28][36]