华尔街投行：明年更大的风险不是“美国衰退导致市场崩盘”，而是“市场崩盘导致美国衰退”

Core Viewpoint - A recent report from BCA Research indicates that the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2026 may stem from the financial markets themselves, rather than an economic recession dragging down the stock market. The report suggests that a potential stock market crash could directly push the U.S. economy into recession, challenging conventional market views [1][2]. Economic Structure and Risks - The report highlights a significant structural change in the U.S. labor market, with approximately 2.5 million "excess retirees" whose consumption is closely tied to stock market performance. This group has retired early due to the pandemic and the subsequent stock market boom, creating a demand side that is sensitive to stock market fluctuations [1][3][5]. - The consumption of these retirees injects strong demand into the U.S. economy, but their retirement means they do not contribute to labor supply, leading to a constrained labor market. This situation creates a delicate balance where strong demand exists alongside limited supply, preventing a recession driven by weak demand [5][7]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - BCA Research outlines a dilemma for the Federal Reserve: maintaining a 2% inflation target while avoiding a recession. The report predicts that the Fed will prioritize preventing a market crash over its inflation target, potentially allowing inflation to rise above 2% and adopting aggressive rate cuts in response to any signs of economic or market weakness [2][8]. Market Concentration and Challenges - The report notes that the current market rally is historically concentrated, with about two-thirds of global stock market value concentrated in U.S. stocks, and 40% of that in just ten stocks. This concentration poses risks, as the fortunes of these stocks are heavily tied to the success of the generative AI narrative [9][11]. - However, there are signs of divergence among leading tech stocks, indicating that the market is not treating all tech stocks as a single entity. This divergence suggests that value investors are still assessing individual company valuations [11][12]. Investment Opportunities - BCA Research suggests that as the era of U.S. tech stocks outperforming the market may be coming to an end, funds could rotate into undervalued sectors and regions, such as healthcare and European markets. Unlike the U.S., Europe does not face inflationary pressures caused by labor market distortions, creating a favorable environment for the bond market [12].