巨变酝酿中？美国财政部将“合并”美联储，贝森特才是真正的“影子联储主席”

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant shift in the relationship between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve, suggesting a de facto "merger" of their balance sheets, with Treasury Secretary Yellen playing a pivotal role as an "shadow Fed Chair" [1][4] - The Federal Reserve plans to restart asset purchases, beginning with $40 billion in Treasury bills in January, which is seen as a commitment to finance Treasury expenditures and stabilize market interest rates [1][3] - This new framework indicates that the market's ability to signal government spending limits through interest rates will be diminished, leading to a tighter coordination of policies between the Treasury and the Fed [4][5] Treasury and Federal Reserve Merger - The Federal Reserve's decision to resume bond purchases fundamentally alters traditional market dynamics, as it aims to set money market rates rather than manage them through open market operations [3] - The Fed's actions are intended to ensure that Treasury spending can be financed without causing interest rate "blockages," effectively merging the operational roles of the two institutions [4] New Power Structure - Should Kevin Hassett be confirmed as a potential Fed official, Secretary Yellen will effectively become his "boss," establishing a "single presidential authority" for daily communication and coordination [5] - The goal is to achieve low financing costs by injecting liquidity into the short end of the market, which is expected to contribute to rising inflation expectations by 2026 [5] Economic Outlook - The article highlights a concerning economic outlook, with recent labor data revisions indicating a downward trend in employment, suggesting a potential for further Fed rate cuts [7][8] - While short-term monetary easing is anticipated, long-term inflation risks remain, with fiscal policy expected to support economic activity and inflation potentially resurfacing in late 2026 or 2027 [8]