巨变酝酿中？美国财政部将“合并”美联储，贝森特才是真正的“影子联储主席”

Core Viewpoint - TS Lombard's Chief Economist Stephen Blitz argues that the Federal Reserve's resumption of balance sheet purchases is essentially a means to provide financing assurance for Treasury spending, leading to a "merger" of the two institutions' balance sheets [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Treasury Relationship - The Federal Reserve is set to restart balance sheet purchases, planning to buy $40 billion in Treasury bills starting in January and increasing in February, which is framed as a response to the growth of the Treasury General Account (TGA) [3]. - This shift indicates that the Federal Reserve is committed to ensuring that Treasury spending is financed without causing interest rate fluctuations, effectively signaling a loss of market's ability to warn the government about excessive spending [5]. - The traditional separation between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is becoming increasingly blurred, with the two entities' balance sheets effectively merging [5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Blitz warns that the strategy aimed at providing cheap funding for the government will lead to higher inflation levels by 2026, despite the Federal Reserve's current economic projections showing a downward adjustment in core inflation expectations [4][8]. - The economic outlook suggests short-term weakness with long-term inflation risks, as recent employment data revisions indicate a downward trend rather than growth, which is a primary factor for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The anticipated inflationary pressures are expected to resurface in late 2026 or 2027, driven by fiscal policy stimulus, which may limit the impact of any economic downturns [9].