国泰海通｜宏观：M1增速能否企稳

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rapid decline in M1 growth, influenced by high base effects, fiscal slowdown, and residents' rush to purchase time deposits [1][2] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9% in November, down from 6.2%, while M2 growth decreased to 8.0% from 8.2% [2] - The decline in M1 is attributed to three main factors: high base from the previous year, reduced fiscal spending, and banks managing deposit costs leading to a surge in demand for time deposits [2] Group 2 - Social financing (社融) stock growth rate decreased to 7.7% in November from 8.0%, with new social financing amounting to 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - New government bonds issued amounted to 1.20 trillion yuan, a decrease of 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 4.17 trillion yuan, up 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Credit growth weakened, with new loans of 390 billion yuan in November, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a decline in both corporate and household loans [1][2] Group 3 - The article suggests that M1 may stabilize marginally in the future due to continued fiscal support and the trend of RMB appreciation driving corporate foreign exchange settlements [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total expenditure, which could help stabilize liquidity [2] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to encourage corporate foreign exchange settlements, potentially leading to a new wave of cross-border capital inflows [2]