国泰海通 · 晨报1215｜宏观、策略、乳制品

Group 1 - The central economic work conference held on December 11-12, 2025, emphasized a moderate policy tone focusing on internal conditions and long-term issues, shifting from "stability while seeking progress" to "maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" [3][4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidies to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [4][5] - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand, with specific measures to stabilize investment and promote service consumption through reforms [4][6] Group 2 - The central government aims to address "involution" competition through long-term institutional reforms, indicating a reliance on supply-side measures to boost Producer Price Index (PPI) recovery [5] - Risk prevention and resolution priorities have shifted, with continued policies in real estate and debt management, including reforms to the housing provident fund system [5][6] - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a key focus, with policies targeting healthcare, education, employment, and medical care to enhance both quantity and quality of supply [6] Group 3 - The economic outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for a gradual reduction in interest rates and a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [10][12] - The report suggests a favorable environment for sectors such as technology, finance, and consumer goods, with specific recommendations for investments in AI, financial services, and cyclical consumer stocks [12] - The agricultural sector, particularly dairy and beef, is expected to see a recovery in prices and profitability due to supply-side adjustments and demand growth, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [14][16]