国泰海通｜策略：跨年攻势已经开始

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is set to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a focus on technology, brokerage insurance, and consumption sectors [5][6]. Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, but recent trends indicate a recovery, particularly in the ChiNext Index. The team believes that the market consensus is overly pessimistic regarding policy interpretations, and anticipates a more optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and promoting investment [6][10]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, marking a shift towards stabilizing investment and addressing real estate inventory issues [6][10]. Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December to April, with a notable shift in focus from large-cap to small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival. The article highlights the importance of this period for positioning in the market, especially for sectors with strong industrial trends [7][10]. Industry Comparisons - The article identifies key sectors for investment: 1. Technology Growth: AI advancements and infrastructure shortages present opportunities in internet, media, and computing sectors, as well as manufacturing with global competitive advantages [8][16]. 2. Financial Sector: Capital market reforms are expected to boost brokerage and insurance sectors, enhancing their investment appeal [8][19]. 3. Cyclical Consumption: After three years of adjustment, the consumption sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism [8][19]. Thematic Recommendations - Commercial Aerospace: The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket and accelerated satellite networking present investment opportunities in aerospace infrastructure and technology [21][22]. - Energy Transition: The focus on expanding green energy applications and building a new energy system highlights investment potential in smart grids and new energy storage solutions [23][24]. - AI Applications: The push for AI integration across industries suggests significant growth potential in internet and data center sectors [24]. - Domestic Consumption: The emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing consumer spending indicates opportunities in sports events, tourism, and emerging consumer goods [25][27].