热点思考 | 两个美国：“K型经济”的成因与出路（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped recovery," raising questions about whether the economy can transition out of this K-shaped feature in 2026, either through jobless growth dragging down overall growth or high growth leading to full employment [2][5][89] Group 2 - The U.S. economy has been experiencing structural imbalances characterized by "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy" since early 2025, with non-farm payrolls declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August 2025, significantly below historical non-recession averages [2][6][89] - The K-shaped economy is marked by disparities in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households see significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households, and the wealth gap continues to widen [2][23][89] Group 3 - The causes of the K-shaped economy include economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structurally bullish stock market, with "jobless growth" being a primary factor contributing to the K-shaped economy [3][50][89] - The labor market has become more relaxed, with low-wage groups being the first to feel the economic downturn and the last to benefit from recovery, indicating that the U.S. economy has entered a late cycle [3][62][89] Group 4 - The article discusses the difficulty in bridging the K-shaped gap, suggesting that the U.S. economy may not significantly improve in 2026, with a potential shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance [4][90][89] - Historically, the K-shaped recovery phenomenon has been observed after previous recessions, where unemployment rates remained high during recovery phases, indicating a pattern that may repeat in the current economic context [4][90][89] Group 5 - The article highlights that the K-shaped characteristics of the U.S. economy are not merely cyclical but trend-based, with significant structural forces at play since the 1980s, leading to increasing income and wealth inequality [4][77][89] - The wealth distribution has become increasingly concentrated, with the top 20% of households holding 71% of net assets and 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund assets, while the bottom 20% hold only about 3% [35][89]