机构研究周报：春季躁动或提前，债市短端机会更大

Core Viewpoints - The tightening monetary environment is improving, and market expectations are rising, suggesting that the "spring rally" may start in mid-December [1][5] Economic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a policy direction of stability and progress, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a commitment to a more proactive fiscal policy and necessary fiscal deficits [3] - The conference's more positive tone compared to last year is expected to boost market sentiment, particularly in the bond market, due to expectations of monetary policy easing [3] Equity Market - Huatai Securities suggests that the "spring rally" may start early due to improved monetary conditions and rising market expectations, recommending a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical stocks [5] - CICC highlights that the A-share market's valuation is relatively reasonable, supported by AI technology and energy revolutions, with a focus on large-cap growth styles [6] - Guotai Fund notes that the A-share market is entering a window of policy and liquidity resonance, suggesting preparations for the upcoming spring rally, particularly in sectors like AI and new energy [7] Bond Market - CICC's fixed income team indicates that weak financial data in November has increased the attractiveness of bond allocations, with short-term opportunities being more certain [18] - Bosera Fund points out that recent adjustments in the bond market provide good entry opportunities, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment [19] - Zheshang Securities believes that the bond market's recent rebound may be nearing its end, suggesting a defensive strategy while monitoring the equity market's potential spring rally [20] Industry Research -招商基金 emphasizes the long-term investment trends and risks in the optical communication market, driven by AI and 5G demand, while advising caution regarding technological evolution and market competition [12] - Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on technology innovation and consumer sectors, as well as financial and real estate chains, which may have allocation potential [13] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the rapid development of the brain-computer interface industry, supported by technological innovation and policy incentives, while cautioning against competitive pressures [14] Asset Allocation - Huatai Baichuan Fund suggests that the market may return to a profit-driven trajectory, with expectations of stable domestic fundamentals and liquidity, leading to potential upward revisions in corporate earnings [22]