【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（12.8-12.14)

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Outlook - The macro environment for A-shares has "returned" since late November, but the upward space remains limited, with concerns about the capital expenditure decline of US tech giants in 2026 and pressure on the AI industry chain [7] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes internal strengthening to cope with external challenges, indicating limited short-term expectations for A-share style characteristics [7] - The mid-term judgment remains a "two-stage bull market," with the current phase (Bull Market 1.0) at a high level and a potential Bull Market 2.0 expected in the second half of 2026, driven by various positive factors [8] Group 2: Industry Valuation and Comparison - As of December 12, 2025, the valuation metrics for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21x, PB at 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 77% and 39% - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 62% and 40% - CSI 300 PE at 13.9x, PB at 1.4x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 31% - CSI 500 PE at 32.7x, PB at 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 61% and 45% - ChiNext Index PE at 40.7x, PB at 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 35% and 59% [11][12] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, retail, and IT services, while the healthcare sector is below the 15th percentile for both PE and PB [11] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - The US Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a complex policy signal that has led to mixed movements in global equities and commodities [14] - The focus on achieving reasonable growth was reiterated in the December 2025 Political Bureau meeting, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and moderate monetary policies [15][16]