破局新篇：重要会议召开，量化传闻再起丨周度量化观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends in A-shares, bonds, commodities, and overseas assets, highlighting the impact of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on various sectors [2][3][25][37]. A-share Market - A-shares experienced a slight recovery with average daily trading volume exceeding 200 billion yuan, reversing a previous decline [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index managed to fill the gap from November 21, but the market remains in a consolidation phase between the October high and November low [2]. - The communication, defense, and electronics sectors showed the highest gains, while coal, oil, and steel sectors faced declines [2][23]. Bond Market - The bond market showed signs of recovery with a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, leading to stronger performance in government bonds compared to credit bonds [2][28]. - The CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a recent high, while PPI showed a positive month-on-month change, having minimal impact on the bond market [2][37]. - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated a commitment to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels, alleviating previous concerns about special government bond issuance [2]. Commodity Market - COMEX gold reached a new high since November, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing global central bank purchases amid persistent geopolitical risks [3][34]. - The article emphasizes a bullish sentiment in the gold market, suggesting a clear long-term trend for gold investments due to global monetary expansion [8]. Overseas Market - U.S. stocks experienced high volatility at elevated levels, with small-cap stocks outperforming [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, and the overall fundamentals of the U.S. market remain robust despite high valuations [3][9]. - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, as the daily subscription limits continue to decrease [9]. Market Activity - The trading activity in the A-share market improved significantly, with notable increases in turnover rates for major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [14][15]. - The volatility of major indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500 has decreased compared to historical averages, indicating a more stable trading environment [19][22]. Industry Performance - The communication, defense, and electronics sectors led the weekly performance among the Shenwan first-level industries, with respective gains of 6.27%, 2.80%, and 2.63% [23][24]. - Conversely, the coal and oil sectors faced significant declines, reflecting broader market trends [23]. Key Events - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 focused on summarizing 2025's economic work and planning for 2026, which is expected to influence market sentiment and investment strategies [25][30]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and the release of inflation data are pivotal events that will shape market dynamics in the near term [37].